Many leading property experts have already made their predictions on the short and long-term impact of Brexit house prices…
What are the long term effects of article 50?
Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s chief economist, believes house prices will continue to rise in the face of Brexit – albeit slowly. Commenting about the growth in his housing market outlook for 2017 Gardner says:
Looking forward, house price prospects will depend crucially on developments in the wider economy, around which there is a larger degree of uncertainty than usual.
Like most forecasters, including the Bank of England, we expect the UK economy to slow modestly next year, which is likely to result in less robust labour market conditions and modestly slower house price growth. But we continue to think a small gain (around 2%) is more likely than a decline over 2017 as a whole, since low interest rates are expected to help underpin demand while a shortage of homes on the market will continue to provide support for house prices.
Property market research firm Hometrack, have also forecast house price growth by an average of 4 per cent in 2017. Although this amount is down from 7.7 per cent the previous year, they still predict overall growth.
Alex Chesterfield, founder of property website Zoopla believes the EU referendum has put the whole property industry into uncertainty. He commented:
The Brexit vote has had an impact and that is not surprising given the resulting uncertainty. We saw property sales volumes fall quite significantly in the second half of last year, compared to the period before the vote.
Buying a home is one of the biggest and longest term decisions that people make so they tend to hold off making such important decisions in times of heightened uncertainty. 2017 is unlikely to see any material improvement in sentiment until we have clarity around what Brexit actually means.
For most of the country, Brexit will have little to no effect on house prices but where there is uncertainty around the economic climate there is also uncertainty around the property market.