5 Autumn Statement property predictions – did they come true?

autumn statement property

Philip Hammond was predicted to take a very different approach to former Chancellor George Osborne when it came to the Autumn Statement, but did the property industry’s Autumn statement property predictions come true? We look at what was predicted and what was actually announced.

Prediction one: Deficit Balance

As Philip Hammond is less focused on balancing the deficit before the end of this parliament he has suggested that he is more willing than his predecessor to borrow additional money if necessary.  Many predicted that this would lead to more borrowing becoming available for developers of all sizes, in the form of increased loan availability from The Homes and Communities Agency (HCA).

Did it happen?  YES

What was actually said:
Philip Hammond accepts that deficit will rise until 2018/19, when it is expected to fall for the first time since 2002 – and it will continue to fall thereafter.  However, Mr Hammond took the opportunity to bash his shadow counterpart. Saying ” John McDonnell has outperformed Ed Balls in the fiscal incontinence stakes”, and claims he would be borrowing much more if he was in power.

Prediction two: Home Building Fund

The Home Building Fund is a £3 billion fund to increase the number of homes being built in England.  It was predicted that Philip Hammond would increase the size of the fund to £5 billion.

Did it happen? YES

What was actually said:
The Chancellor confirms funding for 40,000 new homes and announces a large-scale pilot to give the right to buy to housing association tenants. He said “We will focus government infrastructure investment to unlock land for housing with a new £2.3bn Housing Infrastructure Fund to deliver infrastructure for up to 100,000 new homes in areas of high demand.

And, to provide affordable housing that supports a wide range of need, we will invest a further £1.4bn to deliver 40,000 additional affordable homes. And I will also relax restrictions on government grant to allow providers to deliver a wider range of housing types.

I can also announce a large-scale regional pilot of Right to Buy for Housing Association tenants – and continued support for home ownership through the Help to Buy: Equity Loan scheme and the Help to Buy ISA.”

Prediction three: Stamp Duty Land Tax

Before the Autumn Statement, rumours were circulating that the additional Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) measures would either be scrapped or that stamp duty would become the responsibility of the seller rather than the buyer.

Did it happen? No mention

What was actually said:
The speech made no reference to stamp duty or to Mr Osborne’s previous buy to let tax changes. It is assumed that these remain unchanged?

Prediction four: Transport and Infrastructure

The Chancellor had already hinted that now is a good time to invest in transport and infrastructure, so many experts were predicting a significant investment in these areas, in the hope that this would have a positive impact on the UK housing market.

Did it happen? YES

What was actually said:
The Chancellor says the UK needs to become more productive, so that wages can rise and people can enjoy higher living standards. To help with that, he announces a National Productivity Investment Fund of £23 billion to be spent on innovation and infrastructure over the next five years.

Prediction five: Buy to Let Tax Relief Measures

Many property investment experts were hoping that the new stamp duty and tax relief measures would be softened by a commitment from the Chancellor to build more buy-to-let properties as well as starter-homes.

Did it happen?No mention

What was actually said:
The speech made no reference to stamp duty or to Mr Osborne’s previous buy to let tax changes. It is assumed that these remain unchanged?

This content was written by Quick Move Now
Published on 23rd November 2016
Last updated on 7th August 2018

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