 
Quick Move Now Fall Through Index
Wednesday, 29 April 2009
The Quick Move FTI continues to fall with the lowest recorded figure for 19 months.
Although at least 1 in 3 sales* will still fall through this is a big improvement on last year and represents some good news for once.
So does this mean the property market has turned a corner? Unfortunately not, we believe that what we are seeing is cash rich buyers re-entering the market as prices fall. These are generally serious, confident buyers with secure finance so the number of aborted sales is falling.
With large deposits required and strict underwriting criteria it is proving difficult to get an affordable mortgage, so the vast majority are still unable buy. This stemming of demand has inevitably led to continued price falls which only further discourages buyers.
Until demand returns and competition for property increases we are going to see low sale volumes and falling prices. We expect the market will continue to deteriorate with a real recovery a long way off.
So finding a buyer remains the overriding problem, although if you are lucky enough to do so you are less likely to lose that buyer before completion.
*This figure is based on property sales that are professionally qualified and managed and the true rate of fall through on the open market is unfortunately much higher.
Friday, 27 February 2009
 The Quick Move FTI has fallen below 35% for the first time since August 2007.
Obviously this figure is based on property sales that are professionally qualified and managed. The true rate of fall through on the open market is likely to be much higher however the trend is relevant and could represent a positive change should it continue.
We have seen historically high levels of sales abort for last 18 months. This has been down to collapsing prices, buyer uncertainty and lack of mortgage funding.
Prices continue to fall (1.8% fall in February *Nationwide) and mortgages remain difficult to secure (number mortgages lent in 2008 lowest since 1974 *CML) so the change has been with buyer uncertainty.
We had expected this trend to develop and although it is on a small, fragile scale it represents some good news for once.
There are still very low levels of transactions and few people able or wanting to buy. However the buyers who are there are well-informed and have secure finances in place, they are fully aware of what they are doing and the sort of market they are buying into. Therefore when they make a formal offer they are less likely to experience finance issues or change their mind due to shock media stories and so are more likely to complete the purchase.
So is this the start of recovery? Well probably not but it is definitely a positive sign. The reality is that only a certain type of buyer is out there (cash, investor, well healed first time buyers or those able to borrow from parents). These buyers are just too few are far between and so won’t have a big impact on either transaction volumes or prices. Until the economy recovers and we see lending ease we will see further market decline.
What is the Quick Move FTI?
Not all property sales that are agreed go on to complete and the percentage of sales falling through varies greatly with prevailing market conditions.
When a chain collapses sellers can face a number of issues:
-Large delay in selling as whole marketing/sale process is restarted.
-Lose onward purchase.
-Remain exposed to changing market conditions.
-Lose out financially with costs sunk into solicitors, estate agents, home information packs, survey and mortgage fees often exceeding £2000.
Quick Move agreed over 500 sales last year but like any seller we have trouble with chains and sales falling through. This is despite a dedicated sales progression team and detailed assessment of every buyer, their finances and related chain. The average home seller doesn’t qualify buyers to the same degree, so the general market fall through rate is much higher.
The Quick Move FTI is a 6 month moving average measuring the percentage of agreed sales that fall through.
The index is uniquely placed to give a current indication of how market conditions are affecting general home owners looking to sell their property.
Quickmovenow.com specialises in the rapid cash purchase of residential property. And our professional and competitive service provides clients with a quick, secure and efficient sale.
We assist clients in a range of circumstances but if your specifically want the certainty of selling without the complications of a chain or have been involved in a broken chain and want to secure your onward purchase-Quickmovenow.com could help.
If you want more information please complete a free online estimate or contact us direct on 0800 068 3366.
Thursday, 15 January 2009
Well 2008 is over- And what a year, on average over 40% of sales aborted!
The index has never run at such a consistently high level. This has been caused by a combination of falling prices, consumer confidence and an associated freezing of mortgage lending. With lending drying up there was a drastic reduction in the number of first time buyers to the market, which in turn meant that building any sales chain was difficult if not impossible.
Unfortunately the same reluctance to lend from the banks also personified itself in the pulling of mortgage products after sales had been agreed. This coupled with the general uncertainty over falling prices and fear of negative equity meant that sales fell through at consistently record rates for most of the year!
So what does 2009 hold for us?
Well unfortunately its likely to be more of the same.
Although the initial shock and panic is now over the realty of a deepening recession will start to take hold. Further tightening of mortgage lending and uncertainty over price falls will continue to create casualties in respect of aborted sales, and with the onset of unprecedented redundancies the housing slump appears to have a further string to it’s bow.
The Index will remain at historically high levels until confidence returns to the housing and lending markets. We do not expect this to occur in 2009.
Tuesday, 11 November 2008
On average 39% of sales aborted during the last 6 months.
This is the first time in 14 months that the Quick Move fall through index has been below 40%
Does this mean we have reached the bottom of the market?
The last few months have seen wildly fluctuating market sentiment. On the positive side interest rates have fallen and stamp duty was removed on transactions up to £175,000 holiday. While on the negative side the UK economy entered a recession with continued falls in house prices and high deposits required for mortgages.
There should be a steady improvement in fall through rate once the market has bottomed out leaving those with secure finance no reason not to proceed with purchase. However it doesn’t look like we’ve reached that stage yet.
Until we see price falls slow or stop we will continue to see high levels of aborted sales. And unfortunately as repossessions and unemployment increase and the recession starts to hit home buyers pockets we expect prices falls to continue well into 2009.
Although monthly figures shouldn’t be considered in isolation last month saw nearly 50% of agreed sales fall through which would indicate we aren’t out of the woods yet. While the market finds its feet we are unlikely to find a prolonged substantial improvement to the FTI until later in 2009.
Thursday, 9 October 2008
 On average 41% of sales aborted during the last 6 months.
Due to struggling financial markets and an economic slowdown the sale fall through index has been running at over 40% for 13 consecutive months. The biggest issue affecting both the economy and volume of aborted sales is confidence. Unless confidence in bricks and mortar can be rebuilt we aren’t going to see an improvement in the property market or fall through rate.
In recent days governments in the UK and elsewhere have attempted to stabilise struggling world financial markets. No one really knows how this massive experiment will end but at least it represents a large scale, synchronised attempt by the world’s governments to halt failing markets.
Whatever happens we aren’t going to see a rapid turnaround in the fortunes of the property market. Even if liquidity returns to financial markets banks will not be offering the high risk, low equity mortgages they once did. With large numbers of buyers struggling to secure mortgages, the level of fall throughs will remain high and the market will remain depressed until real confidence returns to the wider economy.
World governments have little left in their armoury, if recent interventions fail we are likely to enter the severest depression in a lifetime. A world recession wouldn’t really benefit anyone so fingers crossed for the next few months.
Friday, 5 September 2008
 On average 44% of sales aborted during the last 6 months. This means the Quick Move FTI has been running at over 40% for the last 12 months.
The index shows a slight improvement, of just 1%, this month. However this still means that nearly 1 in 2 agreed sales never actually complete, this is roughly double the rate of the same time 2 years ago.
We still don’t envisage any short term improvement in the market. And expect the volume of aborted sales to remain high for the following reasons:
• Buyers with secure finance will remain in the hot seat. And will “gazunder” and freely swap between properties if a better deal becomes available.
• Buyers in shaky or incomplete sales chains will struggle to complete on agreed sales.
• Buyers with questionable finances or small deposits will struggle to agree suitable mortgage deals.
Some good news is that the government has made its mind up about stamp duty. And while there may be re-negotiation on sales previously agreed just above the new stamp duty level of £175,000, hopefully it will give a much needed boost to the bottom end of the market. For months lenders have been asking for larger deposits and if buyers don’t need to pay stamp they can put an extra £1,250 to £1,750 towards their deposit.
The main issue with the property market remains the credit crisis and the associated lack of mortgage finance. Until these issues are resolved and buyers can gain access to cheap mortgages with more reasonable deposit levels the market is likely to remain depressed.
Obviously the current conditions could go on for months, if not years. So what do you do if you need to sell and are lucky enough to find a buyer?
• Get as much information about the sale chain as possible, before agreeing to the offer
• Push for early exchange of contracts which should give you and the rest of the chain at least some certainty
• Keep in contact with your estate agent and solicitors. If things go quiet there may be a problem-so chase regularly.
• Don’t waste time on a chain that isn’t going anywhere. Get back on the market and find a better buyer
Thursday, 7 August 2008
 With 45% of sales aborting in the last 6 months, the Quick Move FTI is showing no sign of improvement.
The data indicates that most sellers are finding themselves having to sell at least twice. With buyers so thin on the ground, this means it is taking many months to secure a completed sale. Vendors are therefore finding that a secure chain with financial security can be worth as much as an offer itself.
With some better mortgage deals being available we had hoped for a noticeable improvement. However the wider slowdown in the economy is now being felt, which is making prospective buyers nervous and indecisive.
As usual the government isn’t helping matters. With leaks and indecision about a possible stamp duty holiday, buyers are waiting to see what happens before buying.
So what do you do? Once you have received an offer get as much information about the sale chain as possible. Any good estate agent should do this for you. You need to know exactly how many are in the chain and evidence that each vendor has the funds to proceed. If a buyer is cash they should provide proof of funds or if they need a mortgage they should be able to provide evidence that a mortgage has been agreed in principle. If you have complete knowledge of the chain it is less likely to fall through, but with the rapidly changing conditions and nervous buyers there can never be a guarantee until completion.
Obviously there is an alternative as QuickMoveNow.com can provide you with a quick, secure, cash sale. Please visit our website for more information.
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