Quick Move Blog
Tuesday, 11 August 2009
Just read a good blog on The Telegraph website from its economics editor, Edmund Conway (Sorry - the house price crash isn't over yet), reflecting much of our thought on the future of the housing market and house prices.
The blog argues that house price crashes don't show consistent falls in prices - some months will shows rises before further falls. It says that unlike the equity market, the property market takes longer to recover, acting sluggishly and spending a long time at the bottom of its slump before gathering pace and slowly recovering with a property crash usually lasting 5 years.
It also mentions the current low turnover and activity in the housing market that could be giving a false impression of a recovery. Sure, some prices have risen, particularly in London, but from a very small number of sales.
The full article is on The Telegraph website.
Mortgage approvals jumped 23% in June compared with May's figures, just 6% lower than June 2008.
The Council of Mortgage Lenders' figures show that mortgage approvals was the highest since July last year. The CML seems the mortgage market stabilising, rather than this being a return to a booming housing market.
The figures also show first-time buyers still being squeezed - the average deposit required by lenders in 2008 was 13% - first time buyers are now having to find a 25% deposit.
Thursday, 6 August 2009
RICS has revised its house price forecast for 2009, now saying that there is a 'possibility' of house prices rising overall in 2009 - its previously forecasted a fall of between 10 - 15% in prices.
It put the revision down to a 'considerable shift' in the housing market, but warned that prices could fall again in 2010 if economic conditions worsened with increases in unemployment playing a large factor.
The housing market still remiains in a fragile state, with very low levels of activity. Mortgage lending still remains tight and there is a lack of availability of houses, meaning that demand if short stock is the main driver of recent house price increases.
Wednesday, 5 August 2009
The latest report from the Halifax shows the first quarterly rise for UK house prices since October 2007.
Prices rose by 0.8% in the 3 months to July. In July, itself, prices rose by 1.1%, but still show a decline of 12.1% on the previous year.
It seems that much of this rise is fuelled by high demand and low supply of property.
Housing market activity level is still less than half of what is was in 2007 with mortgage approvals down 58% on June 2007. Expects expect prices to cool off in the autumn when more prperties come onto the market.
Monday, 3 August 2009
The National Housing Federation has forecast that house prices will fall this year and in 2010 before recovering in 2011, contradicting the forecast made by Nationwide last week that prices could actually rise in 2009.
The federation expects prices to fall by 12.2% this year and by 4.6% next year before stabilising in 2011. It also warned that people who bought at the peak of the market may be in negative equity for the next 5 years.
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